Methodology

Data Collection

Our data collection strategy is a blend of digital tools and people on the ground to build a comprehensive dataset on white phosphorus use in South Lebanon. We use web scraping to continuously monitor online platforms, including social media like X (Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, and news outlets. Enhancing this digital approach, we collaborate with Green Southerners, who have connected us with an extensive network of local contacts across different villages. These local sources are key in our data collection, providing real-time, firsthand video footage and updates. They contribute actively by sharing information through village-specific groups and dedicated Telegram channels. Additionally, we work closely with reporters on the ground.

Data Verification

Our verification process begins by ensuring the footage is not recycled from previous conflicts. We conduct reverse image searches to trace the original posting of each piece of footage on the internet. We consulted with weapons experts to analyze the initial burst of white phosphorus, which is critical for accurate identification. This early stage of the burst is key because the white, tentacular smoke patterns are most distinct right after deployment. Minutes later, the smoke cloud can change shape, potentially resembling other incendiary weapons. By focusing on the initial burst, we ensure that our evidence is accurately attributed to specific plume caused by white phosphorus shells.

Geolocation

Geolocation is critical for verifying the exact coordinates of each incident from the footage. This involves analysing visual cues such as landmarks, landscape features, and urban layouts visible in the videos. We use these cues to cross-reference with existing geographic data and satellite imagery to pinpoint the precise location where each incident occurred. This process confirms that the events took place within specific regions of Lebanon and prevents the recycling of footage from other conflicts.

Chronolocation

This process verifies the claimed dates of incidents by cross-referencing satellite imagery from periods surrounding each reported event. This method involves analyzing imagery taken before and after the alleged dates to identify any signs of white phosphorus use, such as burn marks, confirming whether the incidents occurred as reported. However, several challenges affect this verification process. Cloud cover can obscure the earth's surface, preventing the detection of changes. There are also gaps in satellite coverage, which mean no images are available for certain days, and the non-visible impact of white phosphorus, particularly in urban settings or instances where it doesn't make ground contact, may leave no detectable traces.